Morocco 2025: Can South Africa Turn Momentum Into a Title Run?

How South Africa Really Stacks Up in Group B — and Beyond**

South Africa enter AFCON 2025 with a mixture of quiet confidence and grounded realism. Hugo Broos’ side has evolved from plucky underdogs into a structured, battle-hardened contender, fresh from a 2024 semi-final appearance and a long-awaited qualification for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

But Group B offers no comfort zone.

Egypt’s pedigree, Angola’s growing punch, and Zimbabwe’s unpredictability create a pool where one misstep can alter an entire tournament. And yet—Bafana’s underlying numbers, head-to-head history, and continental form suggest they may be better placed for a title challenge than many expect.

How Bafana Compare to Their Group B Rivals

Egypt – The Giant Standing in the Way

Egypt remain the biggest obstacle to Bafana topping Group B and the tournament as a whole.
Yet South Africa’s 8 wins in 14 meetings show this is no psychological mismatch.

Their recent results also break in Bafana’s favour:

2019 AFCON: Egypt 0–1 SA (last-16 shock)

2025 CHAN series: SA 1–1 Egypt, Egypt 1–3 SA

Egypt still rely heavily on Mohamed Salah, and while the Liverpool star remains elite, that reliance creates vulnerability. Cut the supply, and Egypt often stutter.

Broos’ disciplined, compact setup has historically troubled the Pharaohs, and Bafana do not fear them.

Advantage: Slight Egypt on pedigree, slight Bafana on match-up history.

Angola – The Dark Horse That Never Goes Away

Angola are persistent quarter-finalists and enter Morocco as genuine disruptors. Their physicality, direct transitions and tournament experience make them dangerous.

But historically?

20 meetings: SA 10 wins, Angola 3 wins, 7 draws

Even with Angola’s improved CHAN results against SA in 2022, the full senior side match-up still leans the Bafana way. Broos’ structure has excelled against teams who play on emotion and momentum—an area where Angola often thrive.

This is the most important fixture for Bafana’s qualification push.

Advantage: South Africa, but not by much.

Zimbabwe – The Derby That Never Follows Form

Zimbabwe and South Africa produce matches fuelled by emotion, familiarity and rivalry rather than logic.
The record is tight:

19 meetings: SA 8 wins, Zim 7 wins, 4 draws

Recent encounters show how unpredictable this fixture is:

2024 WCQ: SA 3–1 Zimbabwe

2025 WCQ: SA 0–0 Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe lack depth compared to 2017–2021 squads, but derbies have their own rules. For South Africa, avoiding dropped points here is essential — these are the matches that have historically cost Bafana in group stages.

Advantage: South Africa, narrowly.

What Do the Numbers Say About Bafana’s Title Chances?

Opta’s AFCON 2025 prediction model gives South Africa a 2.11% chance of becoming African champions — the 10th-highest probability in the tournament.

That places Bafana behind the continent’s giants:

Morocco – 19.16%

Egypt – 12.75%

Algeria – 12.27%

Senegal – 11.66%

Nigeria – 7.59%

But this is where football defies data.

Why Bafana’s chances may be higher than Opta suggests:

They are one of the most tactically cohesive teams in Africa.
Broos has built identity, structure and defensive clarity—rare in African national teams.

Their tournament form is trending upward.
Semi-finals in 2024, World Cup qualification, consistent results against top nations.

They match up well against heavyweight opponents.
Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria and Ivory Coast have all struggled against South Africa’s organisation and counter-press.

Continuity.
This is a settled squad with a defined core — something Algeria, Nigeria and Cameroon lack heading into Morocco.

So… Can Bafana Actually Win AFCON 2025?

Realistic expectation:

Quarter-finals or semi-finals

Optimistic but achievable scenario:

A run to the final if they top Group B

Dream scenario:

Their second AFCON title — 29 years after 1996

To win the trophy, South Africa must do three things:

Finish first in Group B
— to avoid a brutal Round of 16 against a continental heavyweight.

Improve attacking output
— Bafana create chances, but clinical finishing remains the Achilles’ heel.

Protect their key players
— Mvala, Mudau, Maseko, Mofokeng, Williams, Sithole… injuries to any of these shift the ceiling dramatically.

Bottom Line: Bafana Bafana Are No Longer Outsiders — They Are Contenders

South Africa enter AFCON 2025 with:

Momentum

Tactical identity

A favourable historical record against their Group B rivals

A coach who has mastered tournament football

A squad finally believing in itself

They are not favourites, but they are dangerous — and African football knows it.

If the stars align, Bafana could shock the continent.

If they stay consistent, they could reach the last four.

And if they dream big?

2025 might just be the year the 1996 magic returns.